Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
