It was 60 days ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
